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A five-point plan for Cameron to win an EU referendum
The politicians hardly mentioned Europe during the campaign, yet the most important consequence of Britain’s general election will be a referendum on EU membership. Charles Grant offers five...
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What the Queen said – and what she didn’t say
Following yesterday’s Queen’s Speech, Robert Hazell considers the constitutional issues that featured, as well as those which were notable in their absence. There were few surprises in the Queen’s...
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The new opposition: How will SNP MPs influence Westminster politics?
Louise Thompson argues that the constitutional challenges we will see over the next 5 years will be a product of the changed composition of Parliament. Here, she specifically considers how SNP are...
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The EU Referendum Bill: Taking stock
The EU Referendum Bill completed its eventful passage through the House of Commons in September. As scrutiny begins in the House of Lords Alan Renwick and Robert Hazell assess the changes made so far,...
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The EU referendum campaign: Lessons from overseas
On 18 September, Professor Jack Vowles from Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and Professor Sara Hobolt from the LSE spoke at a seminar jointly organised by The Constitution Unit and the...
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Votes at 16: What effect would it have on the EU referendum?
The House of Lords has amended the EU Referendum Bill to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in the forthcoming EU referendum. The issue will now return to the Commons, but what difference would such an...
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What happens if we vote for Brexit?
The EU referendum could be held as early as June so clarity is needed about what will happen in the event of a vote to leave. In this post Alan Renwick explains Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which...
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Does the Prime Minister have to trigger Brexit talks under Article 50 after a...
In a previous blog post Alan Renwick has discussed how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty could lock the UK into negotiations after a vote for Brexit on terms that tilt the balance of power away from the...
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Would Whitehall be able to rise to the challenge of Brexit negotiations?
Much will be expected of the civil service if Britain votes to leave the EU. Every Whitehall department and diplomats in Brussels will be embroiled in complex negotiations to thrash out a series of new...
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How to win EU referendums: lessons from the continent
Ece Özlem Atikcan, Assistant Professor in Political Science at Laval University, asks whether previous referendums on European Union treaties contain many lessons and insights into the upcoming...
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Introducing our EU referendum forecast
Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous...
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You never know with referendums: a view from Denmark
The Danes have had eight EU referendums to date. Charlotte Antonsen, a veteran campaigner and former Danish MP, relates her experience of these and draws out lessons for the upcoming British campaign....
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Second forecast for the EU referendum
Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous...
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How EU membership has transformed the constitution
A timely new book examines the implications and consequences of a British exit from the European Union. In this post Patrick J. Birkinshaw and Mike Varney summarise the first chapter, which discusses...
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The Electoral Commission and the EU referendum
The Electoral Commission is entrusted with delivering and regulating the EU referendum. Andrew Scallan CBE, the Commission’s Director of Electoral Administration and Deputy Chief Counting Officer for...
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In the event of a Leave vote Brexit would dominate Westminster for years
The Constitution Unit, together with the UCL European Institute, is holding a special series of seminars on the implications and consequences of Brexit. The first, on 21 April, focused on the...
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EU referendum forecast update: little change from last month
Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous...
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EU referendum forecast update: 79 per cent chance of Remain winning
Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick have developed a method for forecasting the outcome of the EU referendum based on current vote intention polling and analysis of opinion polling from previous...
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Post-Brexit trade negotiations would pose significant practical challenges...
The implications of Brexit for the UK’s trade arrangements, a subject on which Leave and Remain campaigners have sharply disagreed, were addressed in the first two seminars of a series on Brexit hosted...
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Referendum polling in the UK has historically overstated support for change
The differing outcomes produced by online and telephone polling during the EU referendum have led to a debate about the merits of each method. But perhaps neither is a good indicator of the final...
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